Starting next Tuesday, MLB representatives for each team will all do everything they possibly can to ingratiate themselves to Scott Boras and his ilk, hoping to not make the signing that every other team laughs at for being abused. In the past, such notable contracts as Barry Zito and Alfonso Soriano have egregiously been agreed on to the horror of one fanbase and the general amusement of 29 others. This year, it looked like the Braves were going to be the one to set the laughably high standard, with leaked reports indicating that they were offering A.J. Burnett some absurdly high amount of money that would pay him on the level that C.C. Sabathia is likely going to make. It appears that the offer made towards Burnett was overblown, but it's nice to see that the Braves are willing to make a splash on the free agent market for the first time in ages.
For those of you who remembered the Bill Kitson offseason plan, I supported one of two methods. Option One, which is the preferred method, involved trading for Jake Peavy and reworking the entire structure of the team around him. Option two was standing pat and letting the kids play. It appears that Jake Peavy will probably not be coming to Atlanta, which is unfortunate for a team so desperate for pitching. However, I will give credit to Frank Wren for a) Not Giving In, and b) Not Giving Up.
When it was reported that the Braves and White Sox were close to a deal, I assumed it was going to be for former Atlanta prospect Jermaine Dye, who had been rumored to be on the market. To my surprise, however, the Braves obtained fantasy baseball all-star Javier Vasquez, who makes up for his poor ratios with a high amount of strikeouts. Personally, I'm quite fine with the trade. I've coveted Vasquez for quite some time, since he and Bartolo Colon made up a temporary one two punch for the Montreal Expos that rivaled any other team in the league. While that Javier Vasquez is not who Atlanta acquired this week, they did obtain a pitcher who is capable of pitching a lot of innings and striking out a lot of batters. The former is incredibly important, as right now the Braves rotation could very possibly include Jair Jurrjens, Charlie Morton, and Tommy Hanson next year, who would have a combined year and a half of big league experience among them. As we all witnessed with Jurrjens (and to a lesser amount Jorge Campillo) this year, there reaches a point in the year where a young arm can no longer pitch effectively. We'll call this the "Blaine Boyer point." The strikeouts are important because, quite frankly, I've watched Martin Prado and Kelly Johnson play second base, and I've watched this Braves team find ways to lose.
Some pundits have criticized Atlanta for giving up highly regarded prospect Tyler Flowers in the deal. While I was certainly not thrilled to see his inclusion, I was also not particularly upset. As was pointed out on 2G1B earlier in the week, Flowers is blocked at every angle in the big leagues. With Brian McCann and Casey Kotchman firmly entrenched at catcher and first base, respectively, Flowers was destined to languish in AAA long after he had progressed past that level, or to piddle on the bench hoping for an injury. He was inevitably going to be traded for something, and since his value is currently at an all-time high after a torrid season in the Arizona Fall League, Frank Wren was wise to shop him around. What people don't seem to recall is that Flowers was, at best, Atlanta's fifth best non-pitching prospect in the minor league system. To get an above average pitcher (even on an off-year, his ERA+ was 98 and his stat-neutralized ERA was 4.02) without including a single big league player is a coup for Frank Wren, and I say this as a self-proclaimed "prospects" guy. On that note, I'm more upset about Atlanta including third base prospect Jon Gilmore in the trade, as the organization is painfully thin at third base behind Eric Campbell, who may never reach AA, and Van Pope, who will likely perennially disappoint after a promising start.
What is interesting about the acquisition of Vasquez in addition to the pursuit of Burnett, however, is the change in mindset of the Braves pitching gurus. After a decade of Leo Mazzone preaching low and away, the Braves are suddenly targeting strikeout pitchers. A rotation with those two and a returning John Smoltz would likely set strikeout records for Atlanta. While I am dubious about this method after a decade of Maddux and Glavine, I do trust Roger McDowell, whose performance has been a pleasant surprise. If McDowell thinks he can work with A.J. Burnett, who may have the best pure stuff in the major leagues without the mindset to work it, then I would not hesitate to give him the rumored 16 or 17 million dollars a year that he is looking for.
So we've deviated away from my recommendation of Peavy/Jurrjens/Perez and are instead looking at a still-formidable rotation of Burnett/Jurrjens/Vasquez. While it's not as sexy of a rotation for a pitching nerd, it's easily good enough to compete in the National League East, as long as the offense can perform as expected. Unfortunately, the Braves still have holes in the outfield (and Jeff Francoeur's head) that need to be filled, and the money that could have been used is quickly disappearing. Adam Dunn's price has supposedly taken a dive, and he is rumored to be available at 10-12 million a year. As much as Adam (and Joe Simpson!) would loathe this move, it would put a formidable power bat in the outfield that Atlanta has lacked since Andruw Jones's 50 HR season. Unfortunately, between Dunn and Frenchy the Atlanta Lineup would be able to match the new Atlanta Rotation strikeout for strikeout over the regular season.
It has been indicated that the Braves are going to give Jordan Schafer every opportunity to win the center field job this spring. Likewise, common sense indicates that Jeff Francoeur is not going anywhere. So if Atlanta truly intends to raise payroll this year, they'll have about 28 million dollars a year to fill left field, resign Will Ohman, and maybe sign a fourth starter. While it would be fun to go for broke and sign Manny Ramirez for the comedy gold that would involve him in Bobby Cox's clubhouse, I'm starting to like the thought of a high-dollar, 2 year contract to either Bobby Abreu or Garrett Anderson. Neither was offered arbitration, so Atlanta wouldn't lose any supplemental round draft picks, and both still have the ability to mash. The money left over could go towards a project, be it a pitcher who's coming of surgery such as Mark Mulder or Kris Benson, or just one who wouldn't be expected to do anything other than eat innings (Mark Hendrickson). Or they could make a run at creating the all-time Expos rotation with Pedro Martinez, Bartolo Colon, and Randy Johnson all free agents.
Unlike Adam, I don't feel as if Frank Wren has done something to lose my trust. This offseason has been no different, unless that absurd 5 year, 140 million dollar contract was close to accurate. If nothing else, I appreciate the fact that the free agent market is once again a resource, allowing Atlanta to add to the list of notable free agents who signed here (Greg Maddux, Andres Galarraga, and Brian Jordan. From there, you drop off to Walt Weiss, and then drop off to Rico Brogna).
I'm not going to go into predictions this week, as the only game I truly care about is the one where the ideal outcome would be the stadium blowing up. However, I'll go ahead and predict that Florida wins by two touchdowns at least. However, it needs to be said: Now that Tuberville is gone from Auburn, the SEC is in HUGE trouble. Not because Tuberville was not a good coach, because that is incredibly untrue, but now Nick Saban essentially has free reign over the state of Alabama for recruiting, and that's quite scary.
Until next time.
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