Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Lowdown on the NFL Showdowns

CANANDAIGUA, NY -- While attending to a golf ball-sized blister on the bottom of my right foot, your trusty OTR Sports correspondent got to thinking about the NFL playoffs. And in particular, what teams are limping into this weekend’s Wild Card matchups.

That’s easy: The Cardinals, who conveniently host the hometown Falcons on Saturday afternoon.

Despite beating the hapless Seahawks, 34-21, on Sunday, the Cardinals have dropped four of their last six games, and all four losses came against eventual playoff teams.

They are looking for some consistency offensively, outside bona fide MVP candidate Kurt Warner, who has made everyone except your noteworthy scribe forget about wunderkind Matt Leinart, who could be shotguning beers and making sweet love to Kristin from Laguna Beach and it wouldn’t even draw a look from coach Ken Whisenhunt.

Anyway, the Cardinals were a chic pick for the Super Bowl two months ago, when their fancy forward pass was all the rage with those hip college kids. It’s still impressive, but they also lead the playoff teams in two dubious categories: Greatest disparity in offensive playcalling and most points allowed.

The Cardinals’ leading rusher was Edgerrin James -- yes, he’s still alive -- with 514 yards. Michael Turner, who leads the Falcons in rushing, has 1,699, more than three times James’ total.

Edge went over 100 yards Sunday for just the second time this season. In seven games prior, the Cardinals’ rushing yards read like this: 22, 40, 21, 10, 32, 23, 19.

Those are yards. Not points.

The Falcons haven’t exactly been stylish in winning their past three games, but there’s some cliché about not awarding style points that you can insert here.

Since passing for a career-high 315 yards on Dec. 7 against the Saints, freshly-minted AP offensive rookie of the year Matt Ryan’s numbers in his last three games have been modest: 400 yards, two TDs, four INTs.

But if Ryan needs to pass 40 times on Saturday -- and he shouldn’t -- the Falcons will lose.

Turner needs 150 yards. Ryan needs 200 against one of the most porous defenses in the NFL. Jason Elam, why couldn’t you lead Bauer Football to the Fantasy Football Promise Land??

You know we’ve all entered an alternate universe when the Falcons, predicted by The Sporting News to finish 1-15, are favored by 2.5 to win in Glendale. And it should be noted that your interested observer predicted the Falcons to finish with six or seven wins when he boldly stated as much Oct. 18 on the now-defunct 2 Guys, 1 Blog. Sure do miss that template.

Final score: Falcons 24, Cardinals 20.

Pick to win the NFC: Eagles. Just watch. Colts will win the AFC.


More Grumblings from around the NFL:

-- After getting thoroughly embarrassed in a 44-6 loss in Philadelphia, Cowboys coach Wade Phillips -- he retains that title for now -- vowed to get tougher with his players. Sounds eerily familiar to four weeks before he was canned in Buffalo for lacking intensity on the sidelines.

He’s a great defensive coordinator -- note his work with the Bills and Chargers -- but he just doesn’t have the demeanor to galvanize a locker room -- particularly a locker room with the most egos in sports.


-- Say what you will about the despised Hoodie, but this was Bill Belichick’s most impressive coaching job of his career. It far surpasses the 16-0 regular season or any of the three Super Bowls he won with a bevy of talent.

When prized QB Tom Brady went down Week 1, Belichick was forced to mold a talent, Matt Cassell, who hadn’t thrown a pass since high school. Eleven wins and one uplifting Miami victory later, the Pats are, alas, left out of this year’s playoffs.

If not for rousing coaching debuts by first-year coaches Mike Smith, John Harbaugh and Tony Sparano, Belichick would be my humble pick for Coach of the Year.


-- According to published reports late Tuesday afternoon, the Bills will retain embattled coach Dick Jauron for another season. As has been reported all fall, Jauron signed a contract extension earlier this season through 2011, though it is highly unlikely he’ll make it that far.

The question now is whether 90-year-old owner Ralph Wilson will keep his coach, who has infuriated the fan base with his error-prone playcalling and nonexistent second-half adjustments. Should Jauron have been fired? Eh, probably. The Bills are the perennial underachievers, settling for a 7-9 season -- again.

Jauron now has the shortest leash in the NFL, and if he were to be fired, it’s a rather appealing position. The Bills have a solid run game with Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, who came on strong the last three weeks of the season while Lynch was injured. And they have a progressing quarterback in Trent Edwards, who is still a few years away from reaching his full potential.

The biggest need for the Bills, however, is acquiring an offensive lineman and a playmaking outside linebacker to compliment Kamika Mitchell.


-- Detroit’s perfectly imperfect season may have impacted one impressionable observer: Matthew Stafford.

Stafford, projected as a top-3 pick by several draft gurus if he decides to forgo his senior season, could be selected first by the Lions if they aren’t swayed by Heisman winner and Oklahoma sophomore Sam Bradford’s dizzying passing numbers.

Would you want to play for the Lions, who on Sunday became the first NFL team to go 0-16 in a season?

Well, yes and no.

Yes: You’d get an opportunity to play right away, knowing the champion from the Punt, Pass and Kick competition could likely beat out incumbent Dan Orklovsky for the starting job. You have two dynamic playmakers on offense, WR Calvin Johnson and RB Kevin Smith. Everyone will be starting fresh under a new coach, after Rod Marinelli was fired on Black Monday. And you get to play your home games inside, a quarterback’s dream.

No: You get an opportunity to play right away. With a team that just finished 0-16, the rookie season could be filled with several Welcome to the NFL Moments. Never good for the psyche. Either is losing 11 games, which the Lions will do unless they significantly shore up the most defenseless defense in the league. And you may be playing under the most dysfunctional front office in sports.


-- Said it around this time last year, and this year we’ll say it even more vehemently: Brett Favre needs to retire.

An MRI on Favre’s ailing right arm showed a torn biceps tendon, which may have been the result of too many curls with the Big Guy. Nonetheless, the injury won’t require “major” surgery, meaning Favre should ready for training camp, which is a must for a 38-year-old quarterback who was downright horrible during the latter stages of the season, surely the main contributor to the Jets’ implosion.


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