Friday, October 10, 2008

Statistical Analysis Says Maybe

Alright guys, so I slacked off a little bit, and Part Two: The Prognosis is going to be slightly delayed until I can at least learn a month's worth of biochemistry.  Depending on how much I've missed by not going to class, that could take a day and a half, or it could take a month.  Rest assured, if it takes a month, I'll just take the D and hope for a curve like every other science major does.

In the meantime, I'll at least be able to work in my weekend picks for you all.  Last week, though I have no proof sans a loose-leaf sheet of paper that I scribbled on during Entomology, I was 9-1, missing only the Wisconsion/tOSU game.  This week seems to have a lot fewer games that could potentially be dangerous, but has the added benefit that at least one top ten team is guaranteed to fall.  So without further ado...

First and foremost on everybody's mind is Tennessee at Georgia. Between the much-publicized first half thrashing that Georgia received at the hands of Nick Saban, and the much-maligned last three halves that Georgia has played against Tennessee, most Georgia fans are salivating at the opportunity to beat up on what is probably the weakest Tennessee team they've ever seen.  The early loss to UCLA has set the tone for their season, and the only victory they've been able to record was a squeaker over the mighty Huskies of Northern Illinois.  While I do believe that the Great Pumpkin will have his team ready to play for his job, this is the one game that I pointed to preseason that Mark Richt would simply win by willpower alone.  I'll take Georgia 24-6, with an offense that features 6 players (with the addition of Southerland and the translation of Tripp to TE) that will primarily be functioning as offensive lineman.

More important this week, however, is the Texas/Oklahoma Red River Shootout.  I'm not going to lie and pretend that I know a lot about either of these teams.  I know that Sam Bradford is a strong quarterback and an early Heisman hopeful.  I also know that, through whatever means, the state of Texas genetically engineered a player that was a mix of John Wayne and Tony Romo, just to help Texas fans get over Vince Young.  Unfortunately, they managed to put a little too much Old West Cowboy and not enough Dallas Cowboy.  Someone asked on ESPN why Texas never gets respect after so many 10 win seasons, and the answer is because they're the only team in the NCAA who manages to choke in big games more than either Oklahoma or Ohio State.  If they can pull this win out, I'll pencil them into the BCS, but I'm still picking them to lose 34-21, with Oklahoma going on to lose to Missouri.

In a game that should be more important to Georgia fans, the Les Miles and the LSU Tigers head down the The Swamp to play Percy Harvin and the Fighting Tim Tebows.  I was shocked to find out on Wednesday that Florida is actually a 6 point favorite for this game, and I can't for any reason understand why.  While the Swamp is certainly a difference-maker, Tebow is yet to look like the Heisman winner he was last year, and LSU has had six weeks to prepare for two teams (Florida and Auburn).  I'm going to take LSU 24-14, with Tebow being sacked four times and not getting any touchdowns of his own.

On the professional football side, there are equally few games that look to be relevant by the end of the year.  For the sake of the local fans, we can pretend that Falcons/Bears qualifies, but I don't think anybody who follows the Falcons is going to expect much more success, as they've already exceeded most preseason expectations.  While Michael Turner looks like the most explosive running back the team has had since Jamal Anderson, his struggles against Tampa Bay show that he's not quite ready to be among the league's elite.  I'll pick Turner to get 41 yards and a touchdown, and unless you expect Matt Ryan to lead the team to victory, one score by Turner is not going to win games by the team.  The Bears should win this one, 17-10.

Turner's struggles against Tampa Bay may not be as indicative of his inadequacies as much as it is of their run defense, however.  Tampa Bay, despite housing a team that plays about eighteen people who were childhood friends with Furman Bisher, have managed to regain the defense that gained them prominence in my childhood.  They go up against a Carolina team that runs out Jonathan Stewart, one of my favorite preseason sleepers, and DeAngelo Williams, who lit up the Chiefs defense last week.  Unlike the Falcons, however, the Panthers do not live and die by the run, with Steve Smith always dangerous, and Muhsin Muhammad having an unexpected breakout year.  Carolina will still be held below 20 on Sunday, but with QB Brian Griese already hurting, I can't see the Bucs breaking 10.  Call it 17-6, but if Tampa Bay ever gets Cadillac Williams back to give them a credible offensive threat, watch out for them at the end of the year.

The last game I'm going to pick is going to be the Jacksonville Jaguars at this years surprise team, the Denver Broncos.  After the catastrophe that was Travis Henry last year, the Broncos were expected to regress significantly this year.  However, everybody's favorite Vanderbilt alumni, Jay Cutler, has gotten his diabetes under control and is having a breakout season.  While the Broncos defense is still nothing to be feared, the advantage is negated by Jacksonville having injuries to 3/4 of their preseason O-Line, as evidenced by the early season struggles of Maurice Jones-Drew.  Even with Tony Scheffler out for the week, Denver seems like an easy pick to me, 31-17.

So, faithful OTR reader, I appreciate your continued reading (and I saw that someone looked at my profile.  I'm excited to be famous), and I encourage you this week to cheer for the Dawgs, the Diabetic, and the Sproletariat.  Because cheering for anyone else would be a crime against humanity.

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